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Trading Forex Without Stop-Loss

Stop-loss is one of the best invention of the financial trading. At the same time it’s also one of the most cursed thing in Forex — how many times was your stop-loss hit just before the trend reversed in the direction of your position? For many traders stop-loss orders are the reason of depression and despair. Unfortunately, not many of them understand that if they didn’t use stop-loss the results would have been even worse.
Recently, I’ve stumbled upon a ”strategy” promoted by some Nigerian trader on one forum. His idea was quite simple — sell USD/JPY on some pivotal levels and don’t set up a stop-loss. His argument — if you have enough margin you can lose only if USD/JPY goes down to 0.00. In his opinion it’s about 8,300 pips now or if you trade 1 mini lot it’s $1/pip, or $8,300 margin required, which is quite normal for a standard Forex account of $10,000. The problem is that for 1 mini lot of USD/JPY 1 pip isn’t equal to $1 — it depends on the current USD/JPY rate. Using the pip value calculator you can easily see how 1 pip value grows as the USD/JPY rate declines; for example, at USD/JPY = 40.00, 1 mini lot pip is $2.50. Of course, such a huge decline on USD/JPY is improbable, but trading without stop-loss you always risk huge to earn small, which eventually eradicates your capital.
So, what’s your experience trading without stop-loss in Forex?
Have you ever tried trading without stop-loss?

EUR/USD Rebounds as Demand for Safety Wanes

EUR/USD rebounded today from an initial decline on speculation that yesterday’s drop was overdone and as demand for a safety waned. Today we had a day rich on a macroeconomic data ahead of holidays. There will be no more economic reports this week. EUR/USD trades now at 1.3375.

Initial jobless claims decreased to 407k last week from the previous week’s revised figure of 441k. The expected value was 434k.

Durable goods orders dropped by 3.3% in the US in October, following an increase by 5.0% a month earlier. The traders expected a growth by 0.2%.

Personal income rose by 0.5% in October from a previous revised value, which was near zero in September, and above forecasts that suggested a rise by 0.4%. Personal spending advanced by 0.4% from a previous reading of 0.3%, while forecasts expected a growth by 0.5%.

University of Michigan sentiment index in its final revision rose to 76.1 in November, while expected value was at 69.5. The indicator was reported at 67.7 in October.

New home sales fell from 308k to 283k in October, while the expected value was at 311k.

Crude oil inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week. Both are above the upper limit of the average range for this
time of year.

Forex Popularity Grows Slowly

Considering that today isn’t a day of a high market volatility and big opportunities in Forex, I’ve decided to post something interesting but a little detached from the actual trading. I’m always interested in how the popularity of the Forex trading grows among the common people. Fortunately enough, Google is such a nice company that it allows us to easily access the data that represents the popularity of almost everything.
The chart below shows how the popularity of the keyword “forex” grew among all the search terms entered by Google users since the beginning of 2004. In less than 7 years, the popularity of Forex went up more than twice. The growth was steady until a peak in late September 2008, which was caused by the global credit crisis that increased the people’s awareness of the financial markets. After the said peak, the popularity declined somewhat and then remained almost the same through the rest of 2009 and 2010. Meanwhile, the news references for Forex didn’t demonstrate any significant growth until early 2008. After that, the news mentions of Forex started to grow more rapidly than the search reference:
Google Trends: "Forex"

On the contrary, the stock market becomes the less popular financial term for search — the keyword “stocks” shows a steady decline since 2004 until now. The chart below shows that quite clearly. It repeats the same peak as the keyword “forex” does in late September 2008, which was also caused by the financial crisis. Strangely, the news reference count continues to grow since 2004 for the term “stocks”:
Google Trends: "Stocks"

It looks like before early 2008 traders didn’t search for ”forex scam” a lot. According to the chart below, there wasn’t a significant level of searches for the term until 2008. The searchers’ awareness for the Forex scams peaked in early 2010 and then proceeded to decline (was there a decline in the amount of actual Forex scams? I doubt that). The news reference graph is almost flat except for the peak in early 2010 (I wonder what caused it):
Google Trends: "Forex Scam"

MetaTrader is currently the most popular Forex trading platform in the on-line retail market but that was not always true. The chart from Google Trends doesn’t show any significant activity for the term “metatrader” until early 2005. The popularity of MetaTrader among the Google visitors continued to grow until the middle of 2009 and then declined slightly until a sharp jump in the fourth quarter of 2010, which was probably caused by the ATC 2010 tournament and the launch of the real accounts with MetaTrader 5 by some brokers. Since mid 2008 “metatrader” becomes a popular keyword in the news and the popularity shows a rapid growth in 2009 and early 2010:
Google Trends: "MetaTrader"

Thanks for reading and happy Turkey Day to all traders from the United States and Canada!

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